Will Dry Powder Come Off The Sidelines?
If President Biden decides not to stand for reelection, as many believe is a distinct possibility, there will be immediate winners across the media spectrum.
Historically, presidential election cycles attract substantial ad spending. In the 2020 presidential election, it was estimated that over $14 billion was spent on advertising across all media. If Biden decides not to run, we can expect a similarly high level of spending — if not more, due to the open primary on the Democratic side and the need for Trump to ramp up spending to fend off a broad range of competitive attacks.
If potential Democratic nominees such as Gavin Newsom, Cory Booker, and Gretchen Whitmer battle it out over the next five to six weeks, their campaign strategies will incorporate both traditional and digital media channels.
National network television ads will be pivotal in reaching a broad audience. Candidates will strategically place ads during high-profile events such as debates, NFL games, and popular TV shows to ensure maximum visibility. Cable networks like CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC will be used to target specific demographics and politically engaged viewers, with ads during popular political commentary shows and news segments.
Digital platforms will play a significant role in reaching tech-savvy and younger audiences. Social media platforms like Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok will be key in targeting specific voter segments. Additionally, ads will be placed on streaming services such as YouTube, Hulu, and other platforms with growing viewership. Search and display ads on Google and popular websites will target specific search terms and user interests, ensuring efficient outreach to potential voters.
Local television and radio will be crucial, particularly in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina. Ads will run during local news broadcasts, popular local programs, and targeted radio ads during peak commute times to directly reach voters in their communities. Newspapers and print media will also be a significant focus, with ads in major local newspapers and community papers in swing states and competitive districts. Candidates will use special supplements, political inserts, and special election coverage sections to effectively reach local voters.
Grassroots and direct mail efforts will be essential, with targeted direct mail campaigns reaching specific voter groups, particularly in swing districts. Funding will support local events, rallies, and door-to-door canvassing efforts to engage voters directly and create a personal connection with potential supporters.
Additionally, websites such as Politico and The Washington Post will be leveraged for targeted digital ads. These platforms are frequented by politically engaged and informed readers, making them ideal for reaching an audience interested in detailed policy discussions and campaign developments. Advertisements on these websites will help candidates reach a sophisticated and influential demographic, furthering their campaign messages.
While outdoor advertising like billboards and transit ads can be effective, implementing them quickly within a five- to six-week period may be challenging due to logistical constraints. However, candidates might consider high-impact placements in key locations where immediate availability is feasible, including digital billboards, which can be updated more swiftly than traditional ones.
If we’re headed for an open convention, top Democratic donors will play crucial roles in determining the party’s nominee. These donors will likely conduct extensive polling in key swing states to gauge the viability of candidates such as Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, Kamala Harris, and Cory Booker. Their financial backing will depend on who demonstrates the strongest polling numbers and potential to win the general election while retaining crucial voter bases, including Black voters. This strategic approach aims to ensure the best chance of victory for the Democratic Party.
